A participant points at notes on a large printed Wheel of Reasoning with the theme in the middle
Working model: Wheel of Reasoning

Where do you start to set real change in motion?

This model does not give you the answer. It keeps you with the cause before you jump to a solution, and then turns you towards the place where change can begin.

View the model
Wheel of Reasoning, free working model by Futures Academy. Hand drawn reasoning wheel: a circle with the theme in the middle and eight segments, crisis, problem, threat and cause on the right, change, solution, opportunity and source on the left
DescriptionWheel of ReasoningAlso known as: Stories of Change

A model rooted in age old folk tales: stories with an underlying logic. You reason from a crisis back to the cause, and from the future in which the problem is solved back to the source: the smallest intervention with the biggest change. That way you design your own story of change, for a scenario, a vision or a strategy.

Perspective switchVision with an argument

This model challenges you to really look at the argument beneath your vision or story.

1When to use

When to use
the Wheel of Reasoning

The same crisis keeps coming backYou solved it last year. Now it is back, in a slightly different form.
Everyone has a solution, but nobody knows whyThe team argues about solutions because nobody has named the cause.
You need a story others will followA vision or scenario has to make sense to people who were not in the room.
The difference with the 5 Whys

Like the 5 Whys, you look for the cause. But the Wheel does not stop there. Halfway, it turns you towards the change you want and the source that can set it in motion.

2The model

From Crisis to Change

The Wheel has two sides. The Problem space, also called the dark side, asks why and looks back, from crisis to cause. Then you turn the Wheel around. The Opportunity space starts in the future in which the problem has already been solved, asks how and works back to the source.

Hand drawn Wheel of Reasoning: a circle with the theme in the middle and eight segments, crisis, problem, threat and cause on the right, change, solution, opportunity and source on the left
The Wheel of Reasoning in eight parts. Tap a segment of the Wheel or scroll through the explanation.
WhyHow
Download the model as an image
Problem space · ask why
Problem spaceFrom crisis to cause

This is where you feel the pain. There has to be urgency before people want to solve something. You keep asking why, until you reach the deeper cause.

CrisisWhere it hurts now

How do you experience the pain today? What makes it a crisis? Without urgency, nobody moves.

ProblemThe real problem

What is the real problem behind the crisis? Look beyond the symptoms.

ThreatIf you change nothing

What happens if you change nothing? That is where the threat lies.

CauseThe deeper cause

What is the cause of it all? Keep asking why until you hit the root.

Opportunity space · ask how
Opportunity spaceFrom change to source

Turn the Wheel around. You start in the future in which the problem has already been solved and keep asking how, until you reach the source: the small beginning that set everything in motion.

ChangeThe future you want

Imagine the problem has been solved. What has changed?

SolutionWhat you have made

Which solution did you create to get there?

OpportunityWhat you have seized

Which opportunity did you see and seize?

SourceWhere it began

What was the small beginning that set all the change in motion? The source is often right at your feet, so small and simple that you overlook it. Look for the smallest intervention with the biggest change.

3Apply

How do you apply it?

Time60 to 90 minutes
PeopleAlone or with 3 to 8
You needWorksheet or wall, notes
  1. 1Choose your theme. Write it in the middle of the Wheel.
  2. 2Start with the crisis. What hurts today, and why is it urgent?
  3. 3Reason back to the cause. From crisis to problem, threat and cause. Keep asking why.
  4. 4Turn the Wheel around. Start in the future in which the problem has been solved and work back: change, solution, opportunity and source. Ask how.
  5. 5Shift until it fits. Move back and forth between the cause and your preferred future. This is abductive reasoning: trying and adjusting, with notes you can move around.
  6. 6Test your story. Tell it to people who were not there. Listen to their questions without defending yourself. They show where you make a leap or leave a gap.
  7. 7Write it in eight sentences. One sentence per perspective, like a headline. Together they are your elevator pitch.
  8. 8Work it out in eight paragraphs. Three or four sentences per headline. That way it becomes a story others can follow.
Download the free worksheet
4Facilitator notes

Tips from practice

  • Start where your audience stands. A CFO thinks in risk: start with the crisis. A CEO wants the vision: start with the change. A sales manager looks for the opportunity, an innovation manager for the problem.
  • You can start anywhere on the Wheel. We prefer to start with the problem and the crisis.
  • Expect to move things around. It is trying and adjusting, like a puzzle.
  • Listen to other people’s questions without explaining straight away. Every question points to a gap in your story.
  • Look diagonally across the Wheel to see which counterforce is at play.
  • Close with one next step you can take tomorrow.
A facilitator explains a completed Wheel of Reasoning drawn on a whiteboard during a Futures Academy session
A completed Wheel on the whiteboard: the story runs from cause to crisis, and from source to change.
5Examples

Swapfiets on the Wheel

Students’ bikes kept breaking down or being stolen. Swapfiets did not build a better bike. It found a different place to start. Below is the story in eight sentences, one per perspective.

Smart Moves: what would Swapfiets do? From ownership to access

Why · from crisis to cause

CrisisEvery few months students lose their bike to theft or a flat tyre.
ProblemNo bike means no transport, and repairs cost time and money they do not have.
ThreatOwning a bike becomes a burden. People give up or ride wrecks.
CauseThe bike is sold as a product. After the sale nobody is responsible for a bike that works.

How · from change to source

ChangeAlways a bike that works, without the worries of ownership.
SolutionThe bike as a subscription: one fixed monthly fee, repairs included.
OpportunityStudents want certainty and low monthly costs more than they want to own things.
SourceA blue front tyre: a visible promise that service is part of the deal.
The story in one line

Students keep losing their bikes to theft and repairs, because a bike is sold as a product and nobody stays responsible. Swapfiets moved from ownership to access: a bike that always works, for one monthly fee. It started small and visible, with a blue front tyre as a promise.

Smart Moves

Every week one pioneer like Swapfiets

What did that organisation really do, and why? In ten minutes. With three reflection questions and a canvas to apply the move to your own challenge.

  • 1new pioneer every week
  • 30 minlive webinar, every other week
  • €10per month, cancel any month
Read more
Smart Moves: what would Swapfiets do?Smart Moves: what would IKEA do?Smart Moves: what would Maersk do?
6Result

Possible next steps

Working modelCone of PossibilitiesWhich futures are you not seeing yet?View the model With your teamA session with usWork on your own Wheel with your team, guided by Futures Academy.View the sessions We are happy to helpStuck?Ask us for help. We are happy to think along with you.Get in touch
Sources

Further reading

Good reads

Scientific background