Yellow and pink notes on a printed Cone of Possibilities during a Futures Academy workshop
Working model: Cone of Possibilities

Which futures are you not seeing yet?

This model does not predict the future. It widens your view from the one future you expect to the many that could come, and shows where your blind spots are.

View the model
Cone of Possibilities, free working model by Futures Academy. Hand drawn futures cone: someone looks through a prism into a widening Cone, with three horizons, from probable in the middle to plausible and possible at the edges, with a jester on top and a black swan below
DescriptionCone of PossibilitiesAlso known as: Futures Cone, Cone of Plausibility

A model that arranges future events from your perspective by time, impact and probability. The further ahead you look, the more becomes possible. That is why it is a Cone. And the edges of the Cone are the limits of what you believe is possible.

Perspective switchThrough the eyes of a futurist

The Cone challenges your assumption that the future is an extension of today, and teaches you to accept uncertainty.

1When to use

When to use
the Cone of Possibilities

Your plans assume a single futureThe strategy only works if everything stays roughly as it is today.
Signals are piling upTrends, news and hunches are gathering, but nobody knows when they will matter.
You want scenarios, not a forecastYou want to explore several futures before choosing a direction.
The difference with a trend list

A trend list tells you what is happening. The Cone adds when it matters to you and how likely it is. And it pushes you beyond the obvious middle.

2The model

Horizons, impact
and probability

You read the Cone in four ways. From the prism you choose from which position you look. Along the Cone you ask when. Above or below the centre line you ask what the impact is. From the middle outwards you ask how certain it is.

Hand drawn Cone of Possibilities: someone looks through a prism into a widening Cone, with three horizons, from probable in the middle to plausible and possible at the edges, with a jester on top and a black swan below
The Cone of Possibilities in ten parts. Tap a part of the Cone or scroll through the explanation.
PerspectiveTimeImpactLikelihood
Download the model as an image
Perspective · ask from which position
PrismYour position

From which position are you looking? Your team, your organisation, your service, the market or society. The prism sets how wide and how deep you look.

Time · ask when
Horizon 1The trigger · about one year

What is already changing? Which events could affect you in the coming year?

Horizon 2The accelerator · three to five years

What could speed up that change or steer it in another direction?

Horizon 3The far end · five to ten years

What does the world look like when the change has fully played out? You set the horizons yourself, to fit your question.

Impact · ask what it does
PositiveAbove the centre line

Which developments offer opportunities? They belong above the line, on the plus side.

NegativeBelow the centre line

Which developments bring risks? They belong below the line, on the minus side.

Likelihood · ask how probable
ProbableThe middle

What happens if today’s trends continue? Example: interest rates stay around their current level, one or two percentage points up or down.

PlausibleCould happen

What could happen under certain circumstances? Example: interest rates quadruple.

PossibleMight happen

What could technically happen, even if it seems unlikely now? Example: interest rates of seven or eight percent, not seen for decades.

ImpossibleThe wildcards

What do you consider impossible? Interest rates of zero, or above twelve percent? This is where you meet your own limiting beliefs. Above the line they are called moonshots, below it black swans.

Background · 1 minutePaul Saffo on the Cone

Silicon Valley forecaster Paul Saffo explains in just over a minute how to look at the future with the Cone: not at that one prediction, but at the space of what is possible.

3Apply

How do you apply it?

Time60 to 90 minutes
People3 to 8 people
You needWorksheet or wall, notes in two colours
  1. 1Choose your perspective. Your team, your organisation, your service, the market or society. Write it down as a title.
  2. 2Set your horizons. For example one year, three to five years and five to ten years. Choose what fits your question.
  3. 3Collect observations. Trends, signals and ideas from social, technological, economic, ecological and political shifts. One per note.
  4. 4Mark the impact. Opportunity or risk? Opportunities above the line, risks below it. Use notes in two colours.
  5. 5Place it in time. When does it matter most to you: horizon 1, 2 or 3?
  6. 6Place it by certainty. Probable, plausible, possible or impossible?
  7. 7Look for patterns. Cluster the notes. Which themes or scenarios do you see emerging?
  8. 8Mark your preferred future. What do you actually want to happen, and where does that sit in your Cone? Expecting is not the same as wanting.
  9. 9Find your blind spots. Where is it crowded and where is it empty? The empty places are your blind spots.
Download the free worksheet
A team sticks coloured notes on a large Cone of Possibilities on the wall
A team maps its Cone. Most notes sat close to today and in the probable middle. In the second round they moved to horizon 3 and to the edges.
4Facilitator notes

Tips from practice

  • Startups put almost everything above the line. Challenge them to explore the risks as well.
  • Financial institutions often put everything below the line. Lift them up towards the opportunities.
  • Most teams stay close to today: horizons 1 and 2, in the probable middle. Push them towards horizon 3 and the edges.
  • For every wildcard, ask: is this really impossible, or do you think it is impossible?
  • Describe each event with an adjective, a noun and a verb. That makes it concrete.
  • Add a fifth P, Preposterous: the wildcard you would normally wave away.
  • Say “yes, and…” and build on each other’s ideas instead of judging them.
5Examples

Klarna on the Cone

For years, paying was the dull last step of shopping online. Klarna looked further ahead and moved from the back to the front of the customer journey.

Smart Moves: what would Klarna do? From the back to the front of the value chain

Perspective · from which position

PrismHow people pay when they shop online.

When · from today to horizon 3

Horizon 1Customers drop out at checkout when they have to enter card details.
Horizon 2Shopping moves to the phone, and young customers avoid credit cards.
Horizon 3Paying becomes part of the shopping experience itself.

Impact · positive or negative

PositivePaying later lowers the threshold, so people buy more and come back.
NegativeYoung customers build up small debts they lose track of.

Likelihood · from the middle to the edges

ProbableCheckout stays a card form at the end of the journey.
PlausiblePaying later becomes a normal option at every checkout.
PossibleThe payment provider becomes the place where people start shopping.
ImpossibleJester: a payment app becomes the shop. Black swan: regulators ban paying later overnight.
The story in one line

On the Cone, payment looked like a probable back office facility. Klarna looked beyond the middle, towards an app where shopping and paying come together. And it took the negative side into account straight away.

Smart Moves

Every week one pioneer like Klarna

What did that organisation really do, and why? In ten minutes. With three reflection questions and a canvas to apply the move to your own challenge.

  • 1new pioneer every week
  • 30 minlive webinar, every other week
  • €10per month, cancel any month
Read more
Smart Moves: what would Klarna do?Smart Moves: what would IKEA do?Smart Moves: what would Maersk do?
6Result

Possible next steps

Working modelWheel of ReasoningWhere do you start to set real change in motion?View the model With your teamA session with usWork on your own Cone with your team, guided by Futures Academy.View the sessions We are happy to helpStuck?Ask us for help. We are happy to think along with you.Get in touch
Sources

Further reading

Scientific background